Saddening Stat Analysis of KC's Slow Start

The Kansas City Royals spent their first week of 2022 struggling, and we cannot analyze that shaky start without talking about KC's revered star-in-the-making, Bobby Witt Jr.

After a thrilling start to the season, KC's prodigious third baseman has contributed very little offensively. Bobby Witt Jr. has 24 at-bats, three hits and eight strikeouts. Bobby isn't the only Royal currently unable to help with the stick. He's one of five Royals full-timers with a batting average at .200 or below. Carlos Santana, Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield and Bobby Witt Jr. all have an OPS below .500. So far, KC's team OPS of .589 is the worst in the AL and the second-worst in the MLB.

It's a good thing their pitching staff is so good. Just kidding - it's the worst in baseball right now. Are you excited about the young studs in the Royals' bullpen? Me too, but they also rank last in the MLB with a combined bullpen ERA of 6.67. A Kansas City starter has yet to put a win on their 2022 stat sheet.

That all sounds like a bummer, so how about some positive notes? Andrew Benintendi looks like a pillar of the offense in this limited sample size, batting .381 with 4 RBI in six games. Brad Keller threw six scoreless innings in his first appearance. He faces off with the Detroit Tigers tonight in the second of a four-game series at the K. For what it's worth, Detroit's team OPS of .648 ranks 23rd league-wide - the worst team OPS in the division aside from Kansas City's.

Two Unexpected, Crucial Improvements for Royals' Rotation

Meaningful baseball returns today as the Kansas City Royals face off with the Cleveland Guardians. Judging by what KC did in spring training, we could witness a lot of scoring this afternoon and throughout the season. The Royals compiled a league-leading .931 team OPS, but Kansas City's spring training team ERA of 6.70 was the league's worst. That's no surprise given what we know about the pitchers currently on KC's roster.

The team's leader in innings pitched last year, Mike Minor, is now a Cincinnati Red. Nobody from the wave of young talent drafted by KC back in '18 recorded an ERA above the league average of 4.26 last year. The same can be said for the Royals' four most-utilized pitchers last season. If none of last year's key pieces of the rotation could even be considered average, and neither could the young guys trusted to make the team competitive moving forward, how can fans expect any success from the Royals in the near future?

Hope comes in the forms of an unexpected return of an old friend and an unexpected emergence of a young prospect. Zack Greinke recorded a 4.16 ERA as a Houston Astro through 29 starts last season. He then signed a one-year, $13 million deal to return to Kansas City. The 18-year veteran has only posted a season-long ERA above 4.40 once - back in 2005. If he approaches his career ERA of 3.41, which he's done in '17, '18 and '19, Greinke may be the ace of this Royals rotation at age 38.

Surprisingly, the well-traveled journeyman may be outdone in '22 by a relatively unheralded international prospect. Carlos Hernandez has a minor league stat sheet that wouldn't impress many scouts, but he's already surpassed his previous production with surprising effectiveness at the big-league level last year. This 23-year-old right-hander never threw 80 innings in a single season as a minor leaguer in the Royals system. His only full season with an ERA under 4.4 came at the single-A level. Last season, Carlos started 11 games as a Royal, threw for 85 2/3rds innings and recorded a 3.68 ERA. That's just bizarre.

Give these guys all your support as a fan this year, because KC needs drastic improvement from the pitching staff before we get any more postseason moments at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals ranked 21st in team ERA last year, and no team to reach the postseason ranked lower than 15th. The eight best team ERA's from 2021 all belonged to playoff teams.

3 Royals Spring Training Stats That Will Actually Matter

Opening Day is here, and our Kansas City Royals have real hope this season. Before the meaningful games begin, we should reflect on some spring training foreshadowing. Many stats from spring training will go on to mean next to nothing, but others serve as a hint at what shape a team will take. Here are three stats from spring training that actually matter:

3. Nicky Lopez's .378 OPS

We should get the bad news out of the way first. That means talking about Nicky Lopez, specifically the fact that he's starting at shortstop while Adalberto Mondesi recovers from an oblique injury. I'm probably not the only Royals fan who sat back and envisioned some batting lineups that felt truly formidable once Nicky's spot was taken by a potent pro like Whit Merrifield or a young potential superstar like Bobby Witt Jr. Now, Lopez takes the place of Mondesi, whose 2020 September OPS of 1.075 left countless Royals fans excited about his future. This is a bummer no matter how you slice it, but at least it isn't the only surprising addition to the Opening Day lineup...

2. Kyle Isbel's .968 OPS

No Royal participated in more spring training games this year, and perhaps no Royal surprised KC's decision-makers more than Kyle Isbel. Royals management was already high on Isbel after he exhibited his consistent defense, speed and power through two seasons in KC's farm system. Now that injuries necessitate the addition of a right fielder, it's time for this non-roster spring training invitee to shine. If he can represent another tough out in KC's lineup, fans like me can go back to that previously mentioned daydreaming about a Royals batting order with virtually no "holes" in it. An offense like that is one piece of the puzzle for a playoff contender. Another piece in that puzzle is a capable front half of the starting rotation. Fans in KC haven't seen that happen for their team since they last became champions, and perhaps the time for change is now...

3. Brady Singer's 2.65 ERA

Singer posted this stat while posting a 1.00 WHIP and holding opponents to a .203 average over 17 innings. He represents the wave of young, talented starters that will decide if KC can contend for the next decade. His productivity is important to the Royals and their committed fans to an almost unmatched degree. To garner realistic World Series aspirations should be the goal of every team in the league, and a legit starting rotation is the foundation of any team that gets there. Today is Brad Keller's day, so enjoy watching the more proven guy go to work. However, we should also appreciate that there is much more to look forward to, and the game after this one will also gift Royals fans with the thrill of anticipation. Such is the beauty of baseball.

Nobody Wins With Pitching as Bad as Kansas City's

The Kansas City Royals' pitching staff is currently horrendous, so it's no surprise that they're on pace to win fewer than 60 games this year. Only two teams in baseball have a lower team ERA than the Royals. Three KC starters - Homer Bailey, Jakob Junis and Jorge Lopez - have started nine games and racked up an ERA higher than 5.35. No other team in baseball can say that.

Imagine being the Arizona Diamondbacks, with three starters who've had nine starts and kept their ERA's below 3.2. The Rays have three guys in their rotation with ERA's below 2.5 and at least 8 starts. There's no guarantee that Arizona or Tampa can translate that into postseason success, either. The second-place D-Backs would barely be a Wild Card team if the season ended today. When KC won it all in '15, Jeremy Guthrie was the only player to start a game for the Royals and finish the season with an ERA above 5. To consistently win with such a lack of execution from the starting rotation is truly impossible.

Hope for Royals fans currently resides in Wilmington, North Carolina. There, the three first Royals picks in the 2018 Draft form the front of the Advanced-A Blue Rocks' rotation. First-round pick Brady Singer has a 2.47 ERA through eight starts. Jackson Kowar, KC's second selection, has started eight games and recorded a 2.92 ERA. KC's third pick Daniel Lynch has a 3.95 ERA through 8 starts this year, and he has similarly uplifting peripheral numbers as his aforementioned teammates.

Expect to see these guys advance through the minors at a steady pace if they continue at this rate of effectiveness. Once these crucial pieces of the puzzle make their way to the majors, the Royals could be considered competitors again. Until that happens, the chances of KC being legit will continue to be among the lowest in the MLB.

Doug LaCerte runs this blog and his Chiefs blog while neglecting people on Facebook and occasionally tweeting @DLac67.

Soler's Success Crucial To KC In 2019

Spring training always brings up intriguing questions for die-hards of any club. This year is no different for our Kansas City Royals; I mean, is this KC pitching staff going to actually not suck? Because, so far, on paper, it looks like it might not suck. We'll return to that in a different article, but hey, why did they just now bring back Lucas Duda? Which guys were unjustifiably sent back down to the minors, and which guys don't deserve their spot on the Opening Day roster? Also, how much ass will Kyle Zimmer kick before he gets injured and hurts my soul yet again?

We have many questions that the ensuing months of baseball's blissful return will answer, and I'll try to bring more and more Royals content as the year goes on, but let's start with who showed up big in Arizona this year. One of KC's biggest run-producers, and one of their most important offensive assets, is the rehabilitated Jorge Soler. Soler had six more at-bats than any other Royal in spring training this season, and he still maintained a .973 OPS while leading the team in home runs and runs batted in. That could be crucial for KC this year.

Jorge could be the only starting outfielder capable of producing runs at a higher-than-average level for the Royals in 2019. Newly acquired center fielder Billy Hamilton steals more bases than he brings in runs in every season of his career. He somehow manages an oWAR of exactly 0 or higher every year, but he's never had a season with more than 48 RBI. He'll score around 70 runs if he stays healthy, but the new Billy in town won't be bringing in many runs. His 29 RBI in '18 was bested by 27 center fielders and 98 outfielders in total.

The less said about Gordo's recent run-making potential the better. We have no reason to believe he'll improve on his 54 RBI last year, since this is actually six RBI more than he's produced in any other season since 2014. But Alex has a spring training OPS .001 points higher than Soler's this year! And he didn't suck during the second half last season! That's something, right? We'll see.

Point is, Jorge means a lot to this team, which is already full of intriguing question marks. It's truly difficult to gauge the shift from Alcides Escobar's offensive production to that of our new full-time sensation at shortstop, Adalberto Mondesi. It's equally tough to know what we'll get from KC's new staples at the corner infield spots or from the notoriously big-league-worthy Frank Schwindel.

We have lots of intriguing questions. Regardless of the resulting win-loss record for 2019, I'm excited to get started. If the Royals of the future regain legitimacy within the Nicky Pratto/Brady Singer window, then many of the pieces of that puzzle are already in place this season. Each and every Royals fan should be excited to see what they can do right now.

Doug LaCerte writes about the Royals here and the Chiefs here. He also has a badly neglected Twitter @DLaC67 and a deservedly neglected Facebook page.

Unheralded Prospect Brewer Hicklen Enjoying All-Time Great Season (In Lexington)

The Lexington Legends are arguably the most exciting club among all affiliates of Kansas City Royals baseball. Lexington isn't rich with Royals baseball history, but it may be the current home of the new wave of talent that will make KC competitive again. Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, Seuly Matias and others represent a significant portion of the next core of highly-touted prospects, but today we're focusing on somebody who avoided most fans' radar entirely.

Largely unheralded 7th-round draft pick Brewer Hicklen leads the Legends in OPS with an impressive .304/.366/.537 slash line through 72 games at this level. That translates  into a .903 OPS this season, and Hicklen's doing this in a league that's notoriously tough on hitters. 14 dingers and a 0.71 ground-out to fly-out ratio indicates that this 6'2" left fielder gets plenty of lift on the ball. His strikeout and walk percentages could use some work, but the same could be said for every important batter on the Legends roster (more on that later this week.)  When I looked through the stats for previous Lexington rosters, this number really stood out.

Nobody has ever maintained an OPS that high through as many games as a member of the Royals-affiliated Lexington Legends. The Legends were actually affiliated with the Houston Astros prior to 2013, so the last Legend to have a better year with the bat was actually an Astro in-the-making. The guy I'm talking about posted an obscene 1.03 OPS in 2010, then went on to garner MVP votes and All Star accolades throughout a still-impressive MLB career. The last guy to be better at the Single-A level than our guy Brewer Hicklen is currently anchoring the best lineup in the big leagues with his league-leading .655 slugging percentage and the big league's third-best OPS of 1.057. Yeah, we're talking about J.D Martinez.

The devil's advocate in me needs to point out Hicklen's struggles this year before I get all giddy thinking about the future. When he was promoted to the Advanced-A Wilmington Blue Rocks, Hicklen posted a .573 OPS while striking out in more than 36% of his 71 at-bats. There's a reason he spent so much of his year in Lexington, but some of his peripheral stats are encouraging, and he was only drafted last season. There's plenty of improvement that needs to happen before we can call Brewer the next Frank Schwindel (just kidding, maybe), but that's what cheering for prospects is all about.

Let's keep an eye on Nicky Pratto and M.J, of course, and let's hope Seuly gets healthy and gets back to crushing the ball next year. But, let's also keep this Hicklen guy on our radar; he's about to conclude the kind of season that's only typical for a future MLB star.

Doug LaCerte plugs his sports blog articles and gives his opinions on Kanye albums on Twitter @DLaC67. He also still has a Facebook page, I guess.

How is Baltimore Still As Bad As KC?

Our Kansas City Royals now hold a narrow lead in the MLB's grand race to see who will earn next year's top overall draft pick. The Baltimore Orioles, somehow, are still neck and neck with the Royals in this season's marathon of sadness. KC still has the league's worst offense and pitching staff statistically, so our Boys in Blue should inevitably win this race by the time they wrap up the 67 games left of a season that's so disappointing it's almost historically unprecedented. After 2014 and '15 brought Royals fans to such unbelievable heights, fan morale now reaches a staggering and unexpected low-point. Morbid examinations of how the franchise arrived at this lowly state came in abundance recently, so I'd like to instead focus on KC's only important race for the rest of this season.

The Chicago White Sox currently sit six games away from "first place", and every other club is at least 11.5 games out of the race for last, making them too "good" to realistically vie for the #1 pick. It's more baffling to see Baltimore with the MLB"s 3rd-worst team ERA and team OPS than it is to see the Royals struggle this much. The Orioles have a guy currently hitting .315 with 24 dingers, and they're somehow just as bad as our Royals at the All Star break. Their problem with the offense is, well, everyone else in the lineup. Mark Trumbo is the team's second-best bat, judging by his .761 OPS. There are currently 11 Orioles with over 100 at-bats and an OPS below .700. Five of those players have an OPS below .600. Only four teams have fewer walks than Baltimore (while KC has the fewest), and only one team has less total runs scored. That team, of course, is your Kansas City Royals.

O's fans also place a lot of the blame on their starting rotation, and there's good reason for that. Alex Cobb, David Hess and Chris Tillman have combined for 33 starts for Baltimore this year. None of them have an ERA below 6. Opposing batters are hitting .313 off Cobb and .365 off Tillman. Oh, and Cobb is the team's highest-paid pitcher. If that sounds familiar, let's remember that KC's highest paid pitcher has been so awful that local media suggests the Royals should shut down Ian Kennedy for the year (and I agree.) To be this bad at the All Star break, teams apparently need to have a lot in common. At least KC spent $10.5 million less to get here.

Doug LaCerte tweets about Royals stuff and occasionally about Kanye West @DLaC67. He is usually too cool to pay attention to his Facebook.