The Lexington Legends are arguably the most exciting club among all affiliates of Kansas City Royals baseball. Lexington isn't rich with Royals baseball history, but it may be the current home of the new wave of talent that will make KC competitive again. Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, Seuly Matias and others represent a significant portion of the next core of highly-touted prospects, but today we're focusing on somebody who avoided most fans' radar entirely.
Largely unheralded 7th-round draft pick Brewer Hicklen leads the Legends in OPS with an impressive .304/.366/.537 slash line through 72 games at this level. That translates into a .903 OPS this season, and Hicklen's doing this in a league that's notoriously tough on hitters. 14 dingers and a 0.71 ground-out to fly-out ratio indicates that this 6'2" left fielder gets plenty of lift on the ball. His strikeout and walk percentages could use some work, but the same could be said for every important batter on the Legends roster (more on that later this week.) When I looked through the stats for previous Lexington rosters, this number really stood out.
Nobody has ever maintained an OPS that high through as many games as a member of the Royals-affiliated Lexington Legends. The Legends were actually affiliated with the Houston Astros prior to 2013, so the last Legend to have a better year with the bat was actually an Astro in-the-making. The guy I'm talking about posted an obscene 1.03 OPS in 2010, then went on to garner MVP votes and All Star accolades throughout a still-impressive MLB career. The last guy to be better at the Single-A level than our guy Brewer Hicklen is currently anchoring the best lineup in the big leagues with his league-leading .655 slugging percentage and the big league's third-best OPS of 1.057. Yeah, we're talking about J.D Martinez.
The devil's advocate in me needs to point out Hicklen's struggles this year before I get all giddy thinking about the future. When he was promoted to the Advanced-A Wilmington Blue Rocks, Hicklen posted a .573 OPS while striking out in more than 36% of his 71 at-bats. There's a reason he spent so much of his year in Lexington, but some of his peripheral stats are encouraging, and he was only drafted last season. There's plenty of improvement that needs to happen before we can call Brewer the next Frank Schwindel (just kidding, maybe), but that's what cheering for prospects is all about.
Let's keep an eye on Nicky Pratto and M.J, of course, and let's hope Seuly gets healthy and gets back to crushing the ball next year. But, let's also keep this Hicklen guy on our radar; he's about to conclude the kind of season that's only typical for a future MLB star.
Doug LaCerte plugs his sports blog articles and gives his opinions on Kanye albums on Twitter @DLaC67. He also still has a Facebook page, I guess.
Thursday, August 23, 2018
Sunday, July 15, 2018
How is Baltimore Still As Bad As KC?
Our Kansas City Royals now hold a narrow lead in the MLB's grand race to see who will earn next year's top overall draft pick. The Baltimore Orioles, somehow, are still neck and neck with the Royals in this season's marathon of sadness. KC still has the league's worst offense and pitching staff statistically, so our Boys in Blue should inevitably win this race by the time they wrap up the 67 games left of a season that's so disappointing it's almost historically unprecedented. After 2014 and '15 brought Royals fans to such unbelievable heights, fan morale now reaches a staggering and unexpected low-point. Morbid examinations of how the franchise arrived at this lowly state came in abundance recently, so I'd like to instead focus on KC's only important race for the rest of this season.
The Chicago White Sox currently sit six games away from "first place", and every other club is at least 11.5 games out of the race for last, making them too "good" to realistically vie for the #1 pick. It's more baffling to see Baltimore with the MLB"s 3rd-worst team ERA and team OPS than it is to see the Royals struggle this much. The Orioles have a guy currently hitting .315 with 24 dingers, and they're somehow just as bad as our Royals at the All Star break. Their problem with the offense is, well, everyone else in the lineup. Mark Trumbo is the team's second-best bat, judging by his .761 OPS. There are currently 11 Orioles with over 100 at-bats and an OPS below .700. Five of those players have an OPS below .600. Only four teams have fewer walks than Baltimore (while KC has the fewest), and only one team has less total runs scored. That team, of course, is your Kansas City Royals.
O's fans also place a lot of the blame on their starting rotation, and there's good reason for that. Alex Cobb, David Hess and Chris Tillman have combined for 33 starts for Baltimore this year. None of them have an ERA below 6. Opposing batters are hitting .313 off Cobb and .365 off Tillman. Oh, and Cobb is the team's highest-paid pitcher. If that sounds familiar, let's remember that KC's highest paid pitcher has been so awful that local media suggests the Royals should shut down Ian Kennedy for the year (and I agree.) To be this bad at the All Star break, teams apparently need to have a lot in common. At least KC spent $10.5 million less to get here.
Doug LaCerte tweets about Royals stuff and occasionally about Kanye West @DLaC67. He is usually too cool to pay attention to his Facebook.
The Chicago White Sox currently sit six games away from "first place", and every other club is at least 11.5 games out of the race for last, making them too "good" to realistically vie for the #1 pick. It's more baffling to see Baltimore with the MLB"s 3rd-worst team ERA and team OPS than it is to see the Royals struggle this much. The Orioles have a guy currently hitting .315 with 24 dingers, and they're somehow just as bad as our Royals at the All Star break. Their problem with the offense is, well, everyone else in the lineup. Mark Trumbo is the team's second-best bat, judging by his .761 OPS. There are currently 11 Orioles with over 100 at-bats and an OPS below .700. Five of those players have an OPS below .600. Only four teams have fewer walks than Baltimore (while KC has the fewest), and only one team has less total runs scored. That team, of course, is your Kansas City Royals.
O's fans also place a lot of the blame on their starting rotation, and there's good reason for that. Alex Cobb, David Hess and Chris Tillman have combined for 33 starts for Baltimore this year. None of them have an ERA below 6. Opposing batters are hitting .313 off Cobb and .365 off Tillman. Oh, and Cobb is the team's highest-paid pitcher. If that sounds familiar, let's remember that KC's highest paid pitcher has been so awful that local media suggests the Royals should shut down Ian Kennedy for the year (and I agree.) To be this bad at the All Star break, teams apparently need to have a lot in common. At least KC spent $10.5 million less to get here.
Doug LaCerte tweets about Royals stuff and occasionally about Kanye West @DLaC67. He is usually too cool to pay attention to his Facebook.
Monday, April 16, 2018
KC Starts Season With Bad Weather, Worse Play
Only two teams in the MLB have a worse record than our 3-10 Kansas City Royals. That's quite the change from entering last season with that "one last ride" mentality - the heartfelt notion that the core could claw its way back to postseason play and make something memorable happen one more time. Fans knew the 2018 season would be different, and somewhat dismal in comparison. The start we're seeing has been disheartening, if not completely shocking.
The Royals began their season with a streak of awful weather and similarly awful on-the-field performance. A planned exhibition game on March 26 with our Triple-A affiliate Omaha Stormchasers never happened thanks to nasty weather. On the 29th, the Chicago White Sox tied an MLB record with six Opening Day home runs against KC at the Kauffman Stadium home opener. Our Royals then lost Game 2 of the season 4-3, despite entering the 8th inning with a two-run lead. Then, the final game of that series with Chicago was postponed due to cold weather. After heading to Michigan and losing the first two games with Detroit, the last game of that series was also postponed. So, because of cold weather and superfluous off-days, the Royals began their season playing two games in seven days, and only four games in 11 days. That is not baseball. That is basically the schedule of an NCAA basketball team during March Madness.
The Royals were surely thankful to play nine games straight, before yesterday's frigid weather in KC and today's damaged dome in Toronto led to two more postponed games. Did the Royals' get into a rhythm and begin playing good ball once they got to play a more baseball-like schedule? Nope! Their 1-3 record has now plummeted to 3-10, and they've lost five straight. Thanks to all the losing and missed games, KC fans will go more than a full week without seeing a win. It's still very early, and the reasons/excuses for KC's struggles are numerous, but hope for this team already seems hard to find.
The starting rotation stands out so far as the most surprising and uplifting element of the club. KC's combined ERA for starters ranks 6th in baseball, behind the St. Louis Cardinals and four 2017 playoff teams. Finding many other statistical bright spots isn't easy. Moose has been solid enough to perhaps gift KC with a worthwhile prospect via trade before the All Star Break. Uhh, what else? Alcides Escobar and Jorge Soler are tied for second on the team with five walks each. That's something, right?
The obvious silver lining here is that each loss makes the next Royals draft pick higher, so for fans of tanking, this bad start is actually good...if we can forget about the millions of dollars KC spent to not tank this season. If nothing else, take pleasure in the novelty of the differing fan philosophies in Kansas City right now. It sure does alter the fan-base when some fans now have opposed goals for their club. I already miss the times when consistently winning was realistic enough to keep all Royals fans hoping for the same outcome. It seems the new, darker era of baseball in KC will resist such simplicity.
Doug LaCerte writes about the Royals and the Chiefs while neglecting his Facebook page and Twitter feed @DLaC67 in similar fashion.
The Royals began their season with a streak of awful weather and similarly awful on-the-field performance. A planned exhibition game on March 26 with our Triple-A affiliate Omaha Stormchasers never happened thanks to nasty weather. On the 29th, the Chicago White Sox tied an MLB record with six Opening Day home runs against KC at the Kauffman Stadium home opener. Our Royals then lost Game 2 of the season 4-3, despite entering the 8th inning with a two-run lead. Then, the final game of that series with Chicago was postponed due to cold weather. After heading to Michigan and losing the first two games with Detroit, the last game of that series was also postponed. So, because of cold weather and superfluous off-days, the Royals began their season playing two games in seven days, and only four games in 11 days. That is not baseball. That is basically the schedule of an NCAA basketball team during March Madness.
The Royals were surely thankful to play nine games straight, before yesterday's frigid weather in KC and today's damaged dome in Toronto led to two more postponed games. Did the Royals' get into a rhythm and begin playing good ball once they got to play a more baseball-like schedule? Nope! Their 1-3 record has now plummeted to 3-10, and they've lost five straight. Thanks to all the losing and missed games, KC fans will go more than a full week without seeing a win. It's still very early, and the reasons/excuses for KC's struggles are numerous, but hope for this team already seems hard to find.
The starting rotation stands out so far as the most surprising and uplifting element of the club. KC's combined ERA for starters ranks 6th in baseball, behind the St. Louis Cardinals and four 2017 playoff teams. Finding many other statistical bright spots isn't easy. Moose has been solid enough to perhaps gift KC with a worthwhile prospect via trade before the All Star Break. Uhh, what else? Alcides Escobar and Jorge Soler are tied for second on the team with five walks each. That's something, right?
The obvious silver lining here is that each loss makes the next Royals draft pick higher, so for fans of tanking, this bad start is actually good...if we can forget about the millions of dollars KC spent to not tank this season. If nothing else, take pleasure in the novelty of the differing fan philosophies in Kansas City right now. It sure does alter the fan-base when some fans now have opposed goals for their club. I already miss the times when consistently winning was realistic enough to keep all Royals fans hoping for the same outcome. It seems the new, darker era of baseball in KC will resist such simplicity.
Doug LaCerte writes about the Royals and the Chiefs while neglecting his Facebook page and Twitter feed @DLaC67 in similar fashion.
Thursday, March 29, 2018
It's Opening Day, Let's Enjoy the Simple Things
We're hours away from the moment when our Kansas City Royals take the field at Kauffman Stadium and begin a new season. Baseball analysts that predict success for KC this year are tough to find, but that has nothing to do with the simple joy that all baseball fans feel swelling up in them on Opening Day. Do not forget how beautiful the crack of the bat sounds, and how it magically sounds just a little more special when it really matters. Do not let anything negative about this season take that unique pleasure away from you today.
Sorry. I just wanted to get sentimental before we talk about stuff like stats and numbers, especially since most of the stats and numbers are not uplifting this time around. Here is the most important and frightening one to remember right now: 142,000,000. That is the total amount of American dollars on contracts belonging to Alex Gordon and Ian Kennedy. Both now return from extremely disappointing seasons. Both of them are at least 33. If the young pieces come together to form something resembling a winning baseball team, all the pressure falls on Gordo and Kennedy. If both continue to underperform, they will ensure that this will be a losing season for the Royals.
If anyone can have a noteworthy spring, it's Ian Kennedy. I guess Gordon's abysmal spring is noteworthy in the same way a young child dropping an ice cream cone is noteworthy, in that it makes me and everyone who witnessed it very sad, but I mean noteworthy in a postiive way. After Kennedy posted the highest ERA of any full season in his career, he looked way more solid in the Cactus League than I would've imagined. His 18 innings pitched was a team high, as were his 23 strikeouts, and his seven walks allowed would suggest that his command is back for now. If he can bounce back, it means the Royals' starting rotation suddenly looks pretty okay instead of awful. "Pretty okay" isn't a compliment many people want to receive, but it's a significant improvement from "awful", right?
There is reason to believe the 33 year-old right-hander can be better than last year's 5.38 ERA. As I said, that was easily his worst year of full-time pitching. He pitched more innings and recorded an ERA below 4.3 in each of the three seasons prior to 2017. Let's not forget about the guy who recorded a 3.68 ERA while striking out 184 batters and eating up 195 and 2/3rds innings in 2016. There is nothing to make us assume Kennedy cannot be more like that guy and less like the guy we saw last year. Perhaps it really was his inability to recover from some nagging injuries that made last season such a struggle.
Kennedy's health is clearly worth taking note of, but he likely won't be with the team when KC reaches its next wave of perennial playoff contention. For that reason, the health of today's starter is even more of a factor. We need to see Danny Duffy looking sharp and preferably pitching comfortably into the later innings against the Chicago White Sox today. I'd rather see us blow a late lead after Duffy pitches well than win a thrilling extra-innings game in which he has a short outing and looks tight. If he reaches for that throwing shoulder for even a half-second, my heart's gonna jump a little. His healthy progression means more than anything in today's game, except for, of course, the sights and sounds of meaningful baseball returning in earnest to all our lives. Enjoy yourself today, and thanks for reading.
Doug LaCerte writes about different stuff, owns an often-neglected Facebook and occasionally tweets tweets @DLaC67.
Sorry. I just wanted to get sentimental before we talk about stuff like stats and numbers, especially since most of the stats and numbers are not uplifting this time around. Here is the most important and frightening one to remember right now: 142,000,000. That is the total amount of American dollars on contracts belonging to Alex Gordon and Ian Kennedy. Both now return from extremely disappointing seasons. Both of them are at least 33. If the young pieces come together to form something resembling a winning baseball team, all the pressure falls on Gordo and Kennedy. If both continue to underperform, they will ensure that this will be a losing season for the Royals.
If anyone can have a noteworthy spring, it's Ian Kennedy. I guess Gordon's abysmal spring is noteworthy in the same way a young child dropping an ice cream cone is noteworthy, in that it makes me and everyone who witnessed it very sad, but I mean noteworthy in a postiive way. After Kennedy posted the highest ERA of any full season in his career, he looked way more solid in the Cactus League than I would've imagined. His 18 innings pitched was a team high, as were his 23 strikeouts, and his seven walks allowed would suggest that his command is back for now. If he can bounce back, it means the Royals' starting rotation suddenly looks pretty okay instead of awful. "Pretty okay" isn't a compliment many people want to receive, but it's a significant improvement from "awful", right?
There is reason to believe the 33 year-old right-hander can be better than last year's 5.38 ERA. As I said, that was easily his worst year of full-time pitching. He pitched more innings and recorded an ERA below 4.3 in each of the three seasons prior to 2017. Let's not forget about the guy who recorded a 3.68 ERA while striking out 184 batters and eating up 195 and 2/3rds innings in 2016. There is nothing to make us assume Kennedy cannot be more like that guy and less like the guy we saw last year. Perhaps it really was his inability to recover from some nagging injuries that made last season such a struggle.
Kennedy's health is clearly worth taking note of, but he likely won't be with the team when KC reaches its next wave of perennial playoff contention. For that reason, the health of today's starter is even more of a factor. We need to see Danny Duffy looking sharp and preferably pitching comfortably into the later innings against the Chicago White Sox today. I'd rather see us blow a late lead after Duffy pitches well than win a thrilling extra-innings game in which he has a short outing and looks tight. If he reaches for that throwing shoulder for even a half-second, my heart's gonna jump a little. His healthy progression means more than anything in today's game, except for, of course, the sights and sounds of meaningful baseball returning in earnest to all our lives. Enjoy yourself today, and thanks for reading.
Doug LaCerte writes about different stuff, owns an often-neglected Facebook and occasionally tweets tweets @DLaC67.
Can KC Keep Up Offensively In 2018?
Team OPS is, for me, the most telling statistic of the 2017 season. Judging by the numbers, it is apparently crucial to have a team OPS in the top ten if you want to dream of reaching the postseason. Seemingly every legit team in 2017 had a huge team OPS, which shows us how the league average jumped .011 points last year to .750 - the highest mark since 2009.
The #1-ranked Houston Astros are currently the champs. The #2 Cleveland Indians won 102 games in record-breaking fashion. Aaron Judge anchors the lineup of the #3 New York Yankees - a team that has the next-best odds in the AL of winning the World Series this year, behind only Houston. The trend goes on and on. The nine highest team OPS totals from last year belonged to postseason teams. The only team who made the playoffs without a top-ten OPS was the Boston Red Sox, and they only won a single postseason game.
You can look back through the years and see this trend continue even further. 6 of the 10 highest team OPS totals from 2016 belonged to playoff squads. The 7th-highest team OPS belonged to Cleveland, who lost in the Fall Classic to the 3rd-ranked Chicago Cubs. Even your 2015 World Series champion Kansas City Royals barely avoided being an outlier by ranking 10th in this stat during that sweet, sweet season. KC had to fight through the two best lineups in the world that year just to pass the first two playoff rounds; Toronto and Houston ranked first and second respectively in 2015 team OPS.
This means nothing good for your 2018 Royals, unless you ascribe to the philosophy that losing is winning this year because it means acquiring higher draft picks. Alcides Escobar and Alex Gordon both had an OPS below .630 last season, and they'll presumably be permanent fixtures in the lineup again this season. That's assuming Gordo doesn't play so poorly that he's eventually benched, but seeing as he truly looks as hopeless as ever right now, that eventual benching is not out of the question.
After struggling in '16, Gordo hit well in the following spring training, finishing with an .884 OPS.
After struggling more in '17, Gordo looked lost in the following spring training, finishing with a .398 OPS.
That was in Surprise, Arizona, where hitters notoriously have the advantage. I guess a ground ball to the second baseman is an out in any ballpark, but you get my point. As for Alcides, well, that's just Alcides.
Don't let this bum you out, though. Hope for improvement from Jorge Soler and the steady emergence of Whit Merrifield should be enough to titillate true baseball fans this season. Also, once Jorge Bonifacio returns from suspension, a hot hand could force a shake-up in the outfield, especially if KC is still flirting with contention. That is not likely, judging by what the vast majority of experts will currently tell you, but it also isn't nearly as unfathomable as the Debbie Downers of the sports world want us to think it is. Your 2014 Royals reached Game 7 of the World Series with the 17th-best team OPS in baseball, and they lost to a team that ranked 14th.
Oh, and whenever you're feeling down about this team, think about Frank Schwindel. Can he start working on his defensive skills in left field, please?
Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page and will probably continue to rave about Schwindel @DLaC67.
The #1-ranked Houston Astros are currently the champs. The #2 Cleveland Indians won 102 games in record-breaking fashion. Aaron Judge anchors the lineup of the #3 New York Yankees - a team that has the next-best odds in the AL of winning the World Series this year, behind only Houston. The trend goes on and on. The nine highest team OPS totals from last year belonged to postseason teams. The only team who made the playoffs without a top-ten OPS was the Boston Red Sox, and they only won a single postseason game.
You can look back through the years and see this trend continue even further. 6 of the 10 highest team OPS totals from 2016 belonged to playoff squads. The 7th-highest team OPS belonged to Cleveland, who lost in the Fall Classic to the 3rd-ranked Chicago Cubs. Even your 2015 World Series champion Kansas City Royals barely avoided being an outlier by ranking 10th in this stat during that sweet, sweet season. KC had to fight through the two best lineups in the world that year just to pass the first two playoff rounds; Toronto and Houston ranked first and second respectively in 2015 team OPS.
This means nothing good for your 2018 Royals, unless you ascribe to the philosophy that losing is winning this year because it means acquiring higher draft picks. Alcides Escobar and Alex Gordon both had an OPS below .630 last season, and they'll presumably be permanent fixtures in the lineup again this season. That's assuming Gordo doesn't play so poorly that he's eventually benched, but seeing as he truly looks as hopeless as ever right now, that eventual benching is not out of the question.
After struggling in '16, Gordo hit well in the following spring training, finishing with an .884 OPS.
After struggling more in '17, Gordo looked lost in the following spring training, finishing with a .398 OPS.
That was in Surprise, Arizona, where hitters notoriously have the advantage. I guess a ground ball to the second baseman is an out in any ballpark, but you get my point. As for Alcides, well, that's just Alcides.
Don't let this bum you out, though. Hope for improvement from Jorge Soler and the steady emergence of Whit Merrifield should be enough to titillate true baseball fans this season. Also, once Jorge Bonifacio returns from suspension, a hot hand could force a shake-up in the outfield, especially if KC is still flirting with contention. That is not likely, judging by what the vast majority of experts will currently tell you, but it also isn't nearly as unfathomable as the Debbie Downers of the sports world want us to think it is. Your 2014 Royals reached Game 7 of the World Series with the 17th-best team OPS in baseball, and they lost to a team that ranked 14th.
Oh, and whenever you're feeling down about this team, think about Frank Schwindel. Can he start working on his defensive skills in left field, please?
Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page and will probably continue to rave about Schwindel @DLaC67.
Monday, March 5, 2018
Spring Training Battles For Starting Time Start in Surprise
We're already seven games into the Kansas City Royals' 2018 spring training schedule. That means we can already over-analyze some stats! The departure of KC's championship core means several starting jobs are up for grabs this season. Many intriguing competitions for these jobs are already in full swing.
The Royals need some young sluggers like Jorge Soler to exceed expectations if they want any hope to sniff the postseason in the next three years. A .211/.318/.737 slash line, a 1.055 OPS, 7 RBI and 7 K's through 19 at-bats is a proper exhibition of the best and worst of Soler. He desperately needs to reduce his strikeout rate, but KC desperately needs some power in their sub-par lineup. Much has been made about Soler's offseason improvements, but the jury's still out on if his balanced new batting stance will improve his ability to hit for contact. He still looks studly when he barrels the ball and clueless when he gets K'ed.
The early competition for middle infield is off to a strong start, as well. Adalberto Mondesi is hitting consistently in his admittedly tiny sample of 13 at-bats, but Whit Merrifield looks determined to take firm hold of the starting gig at second base. Whit's 1.588 OPS through 17 at-bats leads the team at this point. Merrifield's positional flexibility complicates the matter of who will start the season at second base, but his skills at other positions could help both him and Mondesi get consistent at-bats in 2018.
Another key area of change for KC this year is the bullpen. Several relievers vying for big-league jobs started spring training with impressive performances. Kevin McCarthy, Brian Flynn, Burch Smith and non-roster invitee Kevin Lenik all have unblemished ERA's after pitching at least four innings. It's still very, very early, but pitching well in early March is tough, so this still bodes well for KC.
Doug LaCerte writes about local sports, drinks wine and occasionally does Twitter stuff @DLaC67.
The Royals need some young sluggers like Jorge Soler to exceed expectations if they want any hope to sniff the postseason in the next three years. A .211/.318/.737 slash line, a 1.055 OPS, 7 RBI and 7 K's through 19 at-bats is a proper exhibition of the best and worst of Soler. He desperately needs to reduce his strikeout rate, but KC desperately needs some power in their sub-par lineup. Much has been made about Soler's offseason improvements, but the jury's still out on if his balanced new batting stance will improve his ability to hit for contact. He still looks studly when he barrels the ball and clueless when he gets K'ed.
The early competition for middle infield is off to a strong start, as well. Adalberto Mondesi is hitting consistently in his admittedly tiny sample of 13 at-bats, but Whit Merrifield looks determined to take firm hold of the starting gig at second base. Whit's 1.588 OPS through 17 at-bats leads the team at this point. Merrifield's positional flexibility complicates the matter of who will start the season at second base, but his skills at other positions could help both him and Mondesi get consistent at-bats in 2018.
Another key area of change for KC this year is the bullpen. Several relievers vying for big-league jobs started spring training with impressive performances. Kevin McCarthy, Brian Flynn, Burch Smith and non-roster invitee Kevin Lenik all have unblemished ERA's after pitching at least four innings. It's still very, very early, but pitching well in early March is tough, so this still bodes well for KC.
Doug LaCerte writes about local sports, drinks wine and occasionally does Twitter stuff @DLaC67.
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