We're hours away from the moment when our Kansas City Royals take the field at Kauffman Stadium and begin a new season. Baseball analysts that predict success for KC this year are tough to find, but that has nothing to do with the simple joy that all baseball fans feel swelling up in them on Opening Day. Do not forget how beautiful the crack of the bat sounds, and how it magically sounds just a little more special when it really matters. Do not let anything negative about this season take that unique pleasure away from you today.
Sorry. I just wanted to get sentimental before we talk about stuff like stats and numbers, especially since most of the stats and numbers are not uplifting this time around. Here is the most important and frightening one to remember right now: 142,000,000. That is the total amount of American dollars on contracts belonging to Alex Gordon and Ian Kennedy. Both now return from extremely disappointing seasons. Both of them are at least 33. If the young pieces come together to form something resembling a winning baseball team, all the pressure falls on Gordo and Kennedy. If both continue to underperform, they will ensure that this will be a losing season for the Royals.
If anyone can have a noteworthy spring, it's Ian Kennedy. I guess Gordon's abysmal spring is noteworthy in the same way a young child dropping an ice cream cone is noteworthy, in that it makes me and everyone who witnessed it very sad, but I mean noteworthy in a postiive way. After Kennedy posted the highest ERA of any full season in his career, he looked way more solid in the Cactus League than I would've imagined. His 18 innings pitched was a team high, as were his 23 strikeouts, and his seven walks allowed would suggest that his command is back for now. If he can bounce back, it means the Royals' starting rotation suddenly looks pretty okay instead of awful. "Pretty okay" isn't a compliment many people want to receive, but it's a significant improvement from "awful", right?
There is reason to believe the 33 year-old right-hander can be better than last year's 5.38 ERA. As I said, that was easily his worst year of full-time pitching. He pitched more innings and recorded an ERA below 4.3 in each of the three seasons prior to 2017. Let's not forget about the guy who recorded a 3.68 ERA while striking out 184 batters and eating up 195 and 2/3rds innings in 2016. There is nothing to make us assume Kennedy cannot be more like that guy and less like the guy we saw last year. Perhaps it really was his inability to recover from some nagging injuries that made last season such a struggle.
Kennedy's health is clearly worth taking note of, but he likely won't be with the team when KC reaches its next wave of perennial playoff contention. For that reason, the health of today's starter is even more of a factor. We need to see Danny Duffy looking sharp and preferably pitching comfortably into the later innings against the Chicago White Sox today. I'd rather see us blow a late lead after Duffy pitches well than win a thrilling extra-innings game in which he has a short outing and looks tight. If he reaches for that throwing shoulder for even a half-second, my heart's gonna jump a little. His healthy progression means more than anything in today's game, except for, of course, the sights and sounds of meaningful baseball returning in earnest to all our lives. Enjoy yourself today, and thanks for reading.
Doug LaCerte writes about different stuff, owns an often-neglected Facebook and occasionally tweets tweets @DLaC67.
Thursday, March 29, 2018
Can KC Keep Up Offensively In 2018?
Team OPS is, for me, the most telling statistic of the 2017 season. Judging by the numbers, it is apparently crucial to have a team OPS in the top ten if you want to dream of reaching the postseason. Seemingly every legit team in 2017 had a huge team OPS, which shows us how the league average jumped .011 points last year to .750 - the highest mark since 2009.
The #1-ranked Houston Astros are currently the champs. The #2 Cleveland Indians won 102 games in record-breaking fashion. Aaron Judge anchors the lineup of the #3 New York Yankees - a team that has the next-best odds in the AL of winning the World Series this year, behind only Houston. The trend goes on and on. The nine highest team OPS totals from last year belonged to postseason teams. The only team who made the playoffs without a top-ten OPS was the Boston Red Sox, and they only won a single postseason game.
You can look back through the years and see this trend continue even further. 6 of the 10 highest team OPS totals from 2016 belonged to playoff squads. The 7th-highest team OPS belonged to Cleveland, who lost in the Fall Classic to the 3rd-ranked Chicago Cubs. Even your 2015 World Series champion Kansas City Royals barely avoided being an outlier by ranking 10th in this stat during that sweet, sweet season. KC had to fight through the two best lineups in the world that year just to pass the first two playoff rounds; Toronto and Houston ranked first and second respectively in 2015 team OPS.
This means nothing good for your 2018 Royals, unless you ascribe to the philosophy that losing is winning this year because it means acquiring higher draft picks. Alcides Escobar and Alex Gordon both had an OPS below .630 last season, and they'll presumably be permanent fixtures in the lineup again this season. That's assuming Gordo doesn't play so poorly that he's eventually benched, but seeing as he truly looks as hopeless as ever right now, that eventual benching is not out of the question.
After struggling in '16, Gordo hit well in the following spring training, finishing with an .884 OPS.
After struggling more in '17, Gordo looked lost in the following spring training, finishing with a .398 OPS.
That was in Surprise, Arizona, where hitters notoriously have the advantage. I guess a ground ball to the second baseman is an out in any ballpark, but you get my point. As for Alcides, well, that's just Alcides.
Don't let this bum you out, though. Hope for improvement from Jorge Soler and the steady emergence of Whit Merrifield should be enough to titillate true baseball fans this season. Also, once Jorge Bonifacio returns from suspension, a hot hand could force a shake-up in the outfield, especially if KC is still flirting with contention. That is not likely, judging by what the vast majority of experts will currently tell you, but it also isn't nearly as unfathomable as the Debbie Downers of the sports world want us to think it is. Your 2014 Royals reached Game 7 of the World Series with the 17th-best team OPS in baseball, and they lost to a team that ranked 14th.
Oh, and whenever you're feeling down about this team, think about Frank Schwindel. Can he start working on his defensive skills in left field, please?
Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page and will probably continue to rave about Schwindel @DLaC67.
The #1-ranked Houston Astros are currently the champs. The #2 Cleveland Indians won 102 games in record-breaking fashion. Aaron Judge anchors the lineup of the #3 New York Yankees - a team that has the next-best odds in the AL of winning the World Series this year, behind only Houston. The trend goes on and on. The nine highest team OPS totals from last year belonged to postseason teams. The only team who made the playoffs without a top-ten OPS was the Boston Red Sox, and they only won a single postseason game.
You can look back through the years and see this trend continue even further. 6 of the 10 highest team OPS totals from 2016 belonged to playoff squads. The 7th-highest team OPS belonged to Cleveland, who lost in the Fall Classic to the 3rd-ranked Chicago Cubs. Even your 2015 World Series champion Kansas City Royals barely avoided being an outlier by ranking 10th in this stat during that sweet, sweet season. KC had to fight through the two best lineups in the world that year just to pass the first two playoff rounds; Toronto and Houston ranked first and second respectively in 2015 team OPS.
This means nothing good for your 2018 Royals, unless you ascribe to the philosophy that losing is winning this year because it means acquiring higher draft picks. Alcides Escobar and Alex Gordon both had an OPS below .630 last season, and they'll presumably be permanent fixtures in the lineup again this season. That's assuming Gordo doesn't play so poorly that he's eventually benched, but seeing as he truly looks as hopeless as ever right now, that eventual benching is not out of the question.
After struggling in '16, Gordo hit well in the following spring training, finishing with an .884 OPS.
After struggling more in '17, Gordo looked lost in the following spring training, finishing with a .398 OPS.
That was in Surprise, Arizona, where hitters notoriously have the advantage. I guess a ground ball to the second baseman is an out in any ballpark, but you get my point. As for Alcides, well, that's just Alcides.
Don't let this bum you out, though. Hope for improvement from Jorge Soler and the steady emergence of Whit Merrifield should be enough to titillate true baseball fans this season. Also, once Jorge Bonifacio returns from suspension, a hot hand could force a shake-up in the outfield, especially if KC is still flirting with contention. That is not likely, judging by what the vast majority of experts will currently tell you, but it also isn't nearly as unfathomable as the Debbie Downers of the sports world want us to think it is. Your 2014 Royals reached Game 7 of the World Series with the 17th-best team OPS in baseball, and they lost to a team that ranked 14th.
Oh, and whenever you're feeling down about this team, think about Frank Schwindel. Can he start working on his defensive skills in left field, please?
Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page and will probably continue to rave about Schwindel @DLaC67.
Monday, March 5, 2018
Spring Training Battles For Starting Time Start in Surprise
We're already seven games into the Kansas City Royals' 2018 spring training schedule. That means we can already over-analyze some stats! The departure of KC's championship core means several starting jobs are up for grabs this season. Many intriguing competitions for these jobs are already in full swing.
The Royals need some young sluggers like Jorge Soler to exceed expectations if they want any hope to sniff the postseason in the next three years. A .211/.318/.737 slash line, a 1.055 OPS, 7 RBI and 7 K's through 19 at-bats is a proper exhibition of the best and worst of Soler. He desperately needs to reduce his strikeout rate, but KC desperately needs some power in their sub-par lineup. Much has been made about Soler's offseason improvements, but the jury's still out on if his balanced new batting stance will improve his ability to hit for contact. He still looks studly when he barrels the ball and clueless when he gets K'ed.
The early competition for middle infield is off to a strong start, as well. Adalberto Mondesi is hitting consistently in his admittedly tiny sample of 13 at-bats, but Whit Merrifield looks determined to take firm hold of the starting gig at second base. Whit's 1.588 OPS through 17 at-bats leads the team at this point. Merrifield's positional flexibility complicates the matter of who will start the season at second base, but his skills at other positions could help both him and Mondesi get consistent at-bats in 2018.
Another key area of change for KC this year is the bullpen. Several relievers vying for big-league jobs started spring training with impressive performances. Kevin McCarthy, Brian Flynn, Burch Smith and non-roster invitee Kevin Lenik all have unblemished ERA's after pitching at least four innings. It's still very, very early, but pitching well in early March is tough, so this still bodes well for KC.
Doug LaCerte writes about local sports, drinks wine and occasionally does Twitter stuff @DLaC67.
The Royals need some young sluggers like Jorge Soler to exceed expectations if they want any hope to sniff the postseason in the next three years. A .211/.318/.737 slash line, a 1.055 OPS, 7 RBI and 7 K's through 19 at-bats is a proper exhibition of the best and worst of Soler. He desperately needs to reduce his strikeout rate, but KC desperately needs some power in their sub-par lineup. Much has been made about Soler's offseason improvements, but the jury's still out on if his balanced new batting stance will improve his ability to hit for contact. He still looks studly when he barrels the ball and clueless when he gets K'ed.
The early competition for middle infield is off to a strong start, as well. Adalberto Mondesi is hitting consistently in his admittedly tiny sample of 13 at-bats, but Whit Merrifield looks determined to take firm hold of the starting gig at second base. Whit's 1.588 OPS through 17 at-bats leads the team at this point. Merrifield's positional flexibility complicates the matter of who will start the season at second base, but his skills at other positions could help both him and Mondesi get consistent at-bats in 2018.
Another key area of change for KC this year is the bullpen. Several relievers vying for big-league jobs started spring training with impressive performances. Kevin McCarthy, Brian Flynn, Burch Smith and non-roster invitee Kevin Lenik all have unblemished ERA's after pitching at least four innings. It's still very, very early, but pitching well in early March is tough, so this still bodes well for KC.
Doug LaCerte writes about local sports, drinks wine and occasionally does Twitter stuff @DLaC67.
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