Royals' Roster Flexibility Key To Postseason Return

Kansas City Royals skipper Matt Quatraro and his staff deserve credit for prioritizing roster flexibility, and they should utilize that strategy to its fullest to avoid major holes in the Royals lineup this year. Left fielder MJ Melendez has the worst OPS - .350 - among all Royals with at least 20 at-bats in this young season. Center fielder Kyle Isbel isn't far behind, with a .450 OPS through 20 AB's. On the bright side, Maikel Garcia, who is typically at third base for the Royals, has played in center field and looked okay defensively, while offensively looking like he should be in the lineup 100% of the time. Garcia has a 1.042 OPS, two homers and six RBI in just nine games and 29 at-bats.

That should be enough in an admittedly small period of time to justify putting Garcia in center, especially when looking at other outfielders' offensive production around the league. Comparing KC's outfielders' offensive output to that of other clubs exposes a huge flaw that leads to a low ceiling for this current Royals roster. Maybe some would say it's too early to make radical change, but the Royals played these guys in these spots last year and saw the same thing. The 2024 regular season OPS for left fielders was .714. It was .697 for center fielders. MJ finished the season with a .674 OPS, and Isbel finished at .654. 

Just as an example, the New York Yankees struggled to get offensive output from the left field position, mainly because Alex Verdugo posted a .647 OPS through 149 games as their primary left fielder. This was completely overshadowed by Aaron Judge's regular season success and a 1.159 OPS over 158 games as New York's primary center fielder. The World Series Champion Dodgers only got average production from center fielders last season, but left fielder Teoscar Hernandez hit 33 homers, racked up 99 RBI and finished the regular season with an .840 OPS. Comparing any lineup to the Dodgers' seems unfair right now, but the two pennant winners aren't the only teams to outshine KC in this area.

Fellow American League Central clubs that reached the postseason also received solid production from at least one of their left and center fielders. Cleveland didn't get much from center fielders Tyler Freeman and Angel Martinez last year, but Steven Kwan was excellent at getting on base and finished with a .368 OBP and .793 OPS. Tigers left fielder Riley Greene led all of Detroit's position players in WAR with a 5.4 while posting a .827 regular season OPS. In second place on the list of WAR by Tigers position players was center fielder Matt Vierling with a 2.9 WAR and a .735 season-long OPS. No Royals outfielder finished last season with an OPS as high as Detroit's second-best outfielder.

That's every AL team that advanced further than KC last postseason, but it doesn't end there. Baltimore left fielder Colton Cowser was awesome in 2024, posting a .768 OPS and 3.1 WAR over 153 games. Center fielder Cedric Mullins posted a .710 OPS over 147 games. Astros center fielder Jake Meyers struggled to produce at a big-league starter's standard last year, posting a .646 OPS. Yordan Alvarez did more than his part, though, and posted a ridiculous .959 OPS over 147 games as Houston's primary left fielder. Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill were both awesome in San Diego, posting an .839 and .826 OPS, respectively. Michael Harris was a tick above average in center for Atlanta, Brandon Nimmo was above-average for the Mets and Philly's Brandon Marsh posted a .747 OPS as their primary left fielder.

Every team that reached the postseason in 2024, aside from the Royals, had a center fielder, a left fielder or both who provided their team offensive production that was above the league average for the position. Coach Q and the Royals cannot let these subpar bats stay in the lineup while hotter hitters wait on the bench. Thankfully, stubbornness is a trait rarely exhibited by the KC coaching staff lately, so if changes are necessary this season, I expect them to be made swiftly. I'm predicting more Garcia in the outfield, as well as more outfield starts given to other solid hitters such as newly acquired lead-off man Jonathan India.

Saddening Stat Analysis of KC's Slow Start

The Kansas City Royals spent their first week of 2022 struggling, and we cannot analyze that shaky start without talking about KC's revered star-in-the-making, Bobby Witt Jr.

After a thrilling start to the season, KC's prodigious third baseman has contributed very little offensively. Bobby Witt Jr. has 24 at-bats, three hits and eight strikeouts. Bobby isn't the only Royal currently unable to help with the stick. He's one of five Royals full-timers with a batting average at .200 or below. Carlos Santana, Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield and Bobby Witt Jr. all have an OPS below .500. So far, KC's team OPS of .589 is the worst in the AL and the second-worst in the MLB.

It's a good thing their pitching staff is so good. Just kidding - it's the worst in baseball right now. Are you excited about the young studs in the Royals' bullpen? Me too, but they also rank last in the MLB with a combined bullpen ERA of 6.67. A Kansas City starter has yet to put a win on their 2022 stat sheet.

That all sounds like a bummer, so how about some positive notes? Andrew Benintendi looks like a pillar of the offense in this limited sample size, batting .381 with 4 RBI in six games. Brad Keller threw six scoreless innings in his first appearance. He faces off with the Detroit Tigers tonight in the second of a four-game series at the K. For what it's worth, Detroit's team OPS of .648 ranks 23rd league-wide - the worst team OPS in the division aside from Kansas City's.

Two Unexpected, Crucial Improvements for Royals' Rotation

Meaningful baseball returns today as the Kansas City Royals face off with the Cleveland Guardians. Judging by what KC did in spring training, we could witness a lot of scoring this afternoon and throughout the season. The Royals compiled a league-leading .931 team OPS, but Kansas City's spring training team ERA of 6.70 was the league's worst. That's no surprise given what we know about the pitchers currently on KC's roster.

The team's leader in innings pitched last year, Mike Minor, is now a Cincinnati Red. Nobody from the wave of young talent drafted by KC back in '18 recorded an ERA above the league average of 4.26 last year. The same can be said for the Royals' four most-utilized pitchers last season. If none of last year's key pieces of the rotation could even be considered average, and neither could the young guys trusted to make the team competitive moving forward, how can fans expect any success from the Royals in the near future?

Hope comes in the forms of an unexpected return of an old friend and an unexpected emergence of a young prospect. Zack Greinke recorded a 4.16 ERA as a Houston Astro through 29 starts last season. He then signed a one-year, $13 million deal to return to Kansas City. The 18-year veteran has only posted a season-long ERA above 4.40 once - back in 2005. If he approaches his career ERA of 3.41, which he's done in '17, '18 and '19, Greinke may be the ace of this Royals rotation at age 38.

Surprisingly, the well-traveled journeyman may be outdone in '22 by a relatively unheralded international prospect. Carlos Hernandez has a minor league stat sheet that wouldn't impress many scouts, but he's already surpassed his previous production with surprising effectiveness at the big-league level last year. This 23-year-old right-hander never threw 80 innings in a single season as a minor leaguer in the Royals system. His only full season with an ERA under 4.4 came at the single-A level. Last season, Carlos started 11 games as a Royal, threw for 85 2/3rds innings and recorded a 3.68 ERA. That's just bizarre.

Give these guys all your support as a fan this year, because KC needs drastic improvement from the pitching staff before we get any more postseason moments at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals ranked 21st in team ERA last year, and no team to reach the postseason ranked lower than 15th. The eight best team ERA's from 2021 all belonged to playoff teams.

3 Royals Spring Training Stats That Will Actually Matter

Opening Day is here, and our Kansas City Royals have real hope this season. Before the meaningful games begin, we should reflect on some spring training foreshadowing. Many stats from spring training will go on to mean next to nothing, but others serve as a hint at what shape a team will take. Here are three stats from spring training that actually matter:

3. Nicky Lopez's .378 OPS

We should get the bad news out of the way first. That means talking about Nicky Lopez, specifically the fact that he's starting at shortstop while Adalberto Mondesi recovers from an oblique injury. I'm probably not the only Royals fan who sat back and envisioned some batting lineups that felt truly formidable once Nicky's spot was taken by a potent pro like Whit Merrifield or a young potential superstar like Bobby Witt Jr. Now, Lopez takes the place of Mondesi, whose 2020 September OPS of 1.075 left countless Royals fans excited about his future. This is a bummer no matter how you slice it, but at least it isn't the only surprising addition to the Opening Day lineup...

2. Kyle Isbel's .968 OPS

No Royal participated in more spring training games this year, and perhaps no Royal surprised KC's decision-makers more than Kyle Isbel. Royals management was already high on Isbel after he exhibited his consistent defense, speed and power through two seasons in KC's farm system. Now that injuries necessitate the addition of a right fielder, it's time for this non-roster spring training invitee to shine. If he can represent another tough out in KC's lineup, fans like me can go back to that previously mentioned daydreaming about a Royals batting order with virtually no "holes" in it. An offense like that is one piece of the puzzle for a playoff contender. Another piece in that puzzle is a capable front half of the starting rotation. Fans in KC haven't seen that happen for their team since they last became champions, and perhaps the time for change is now...

3. Brady Singer's 2.65 ERA

Singer posted this stat while posting a 1.00 WHIP and holding opponents to a .203 average over 17 innings. He represents the wave of young, talented starters that will decide if KC can contend for the next decade. His productivity is important to the Royals and their committed fans to an almost unmatched degree. To garner realistic World Series aspirations should be the goal of every team in the league, and a legit starting rotation is the foundation of any team that gets there. Today is Brad Keller's day, so enjoy watching the more proven guy go to work. However, we should also appreciate that there is much more to look forward to, and the game after this one will also gift Royals fans with the thrill of anticipation. Such is the beauty of baseball.

Nobody Wins With Pitching as Bad as Kansas City's

The Kansas City Royals' pitching staff is currently horrendous, so it's no surprise that they're on pace to win fewer than 60 games this year. Only two teams in baseball have a lower team ERA than the Royals. Three KC starters - Homer Bailey, Jakob Junis and Jorge Lopez - have started nine games and racked up an ERA higher than 5.35. No other team in baseball can say that.

Imagine being the Arizona Diamondbacks, with three starters who've had nine starts and kept their ERA's below 3.2. The Rays have three guys in their rotation with ERA's below 2.5 and at least 8 starts. There's no guarantee that Arizona or Tampa can translate that into postseason success, either. The second-place D-Backs would barely be a Wild Card team if the season ended today. When KC won it all in '15, Jeremy Guthrie was the only player to start a game for the Royals and finish the season with an ERA above 5. To consistently win with such a lack of execution from the starting rotation is truly impossible.

Hope for Royals fans currently resides in Wilmington, North Carolina. There, the three first Royals picks in the 2018 Draft form the front of the Advanced-A Blue Rocks' rotation. First-round pick Brady Singer has a 2.47 ERA through eight starts. Jackson Kowar, KC's second selection, has started eight games and recorded a 2.92 ERA. KC's third pick Daniel Lynch has a 3.95 ERA through 8 starts this year, and he has similarly uplifting peripheral numbers as his aforementioned teammates.

Expect to see these guys advance through the minors at a steady pace if they continue at this rate of effectiveness. Once these crucial pieces of the puzzle make their way to the majors, the Royals could be considered competitors again. Until that happens, the chances of KC being legit will continue to be among the lowest in the MLB.

Doug LaCerte runs this blog and his Chiefs blog while neglecting people on Facebook and occasionally tweeting @DLac67.

Soler's Success Crucial To KC In 2019

Spring training always brings up intriguing questions for die-hards of any club. This year is no different for our Kansas City Royals; I mean, is this KC pitching staff going to actually not suck? Because, so far, on paper, it looks like it might not suck. We'll return to that in a different article, but hey, why did they just now bring back Lucas Duda? Which guys were unjustifiably sent back down to the minors, and which guys don't deserve their spot on the Opening Day roster? Also, how much ass will Kyle Zimmer kick before he gets injured and hurts my soul yet again?

We have many questions that the ensuing months of baseball's blissful return will answer, and I'll try to bring more and more Royals content as the year goes on, but let's start with who showed up big in Arizona this year. One of KC's biggest run-producers, and one of their most important offensive assets, is the rehabilitated Jorge Soler. Soler had six more at-bats than any other Royal in spring training this season, and he still maintained a .973 OPS while leading the team in home runs and runs batted in. That could be crucial for KC this year.

Jorge could be the only starting outfielder capable of producing runs at a higher-than-average level for the Royals in 2019. Newly acquired center fielder Billy Hamilton steals more bases than he brings in runs in every season of his career. He somehow manages an oWAR of exactly 0 or higher every year, but he's never had a season with more than 48 RBI. He'll score around 70 runs if he stays healthy, but the new Billy in town won't be bringing in many runs. His 29 RBI in '18 was bested by 27 center fielders and 98 outfielders in total.

The less said about Gordo's recent run-making potential the better. We have no reason to believe he'll improve on his 54 RBI last year, since this is actually six RBI more than he's produced in any other season since 2014. But Alex has a spring training OPS .001 points higher than Soler's this year! And he didn't suck during the second half last season! That's something, right? We'll see.

Point is, Jorge means a lot to this team, which is already full of intriguing question marks. It's truly difficult to gauge the shift from Alcides Escobar's offensive production to that of our new full-time sensation at shortstop, Adalberto Mondesi. It's equally tough to know what we'll get from KC's new staples at the corner infield spots or from the notoriously big-league-worthy Frank Schwindel.

We have lots of intriguing questions. Regardless of the resulting win-loss record for 2019, I'm excited to get started. If the Royals of the future regain legitimacy within the Nicky Pratto/Brady Singer window, then many of the pieces of that puzzle are already in place this season. Each and every Royals fan should be excited to see what they can do right now.

Doug LaCerte writes about the Royals here and the Chiefs here. He also has a badly neglected Twitter @DLaC67 and a deservedly neglected Facebook page.

Unheralded Prospect Brewer Hicklen Enjoying All-Time Great Season (In Lexington)

The Lexington Legends are arguably the most exciting club among all affiliates of Kansas City Royals baseball. Lexington isn't rich with Royals baseball history, but it may be the current home of the new wave of talent that will make KC competitive again. Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, Seuly Matias and others represent a significant portion of the next core of highly-touted prospects, but today we're focusing on somebody who avoided most fans' radar entirely.

Largely unheralded 7th-round draft pick Brewer Hicklen leads the Legends in OPS with an impressive .304/.366/.537 slash line through 72 games at this level. That translates  into a .903 OPS this season, and Hicklen's doing this in a league that's notoriously tough on hitters. 14 dingers and a 0.71 ground-out to fly-out ratio indicates that this 6'2" left fielder gets plenty of lift on the ball. His strikeout and walk percentages could use some work, but the same could be said for every important batter on the Legends roster (more on that later this week.)  When I looked through the stats for previous Lexington rosters, this number really stood out.

Nobody has ever maintained an OPS that high through as many games as a member of the Royals-affiliated Lexington Legends. The Legends were actually affiliated with the Houston Astros prior to 2013, so the last Legend to have a better year with the bat was actually an Astro in-the-making. The guy I'm talking about posted an obscene 1.03 OPS in 2010, then went on to garner MVP votes and All Star accolades throughout a still-impressive MLB career. The last guy to be better at the Single-A level than our guy Brewer Hicklen is currently anchoring the best lineup in the big leagues with his league-leading .655 slugging percentage and the big league's third-best OPS of 1.057. Yeah, we're talking about J.D Martinez.

The devil's advocate in me needs to point out Hicklen's struggles this year before I get all giddy thinking about the future. When he was promoted to the Advanced-A Wilmington Blue Rocks, Hicklen posted a .573 OPS while striking out in more than 36% of his 71 at-bats. There's a reason he spent so much of his year in Lexington, but some of his peripheral stats are encouraging, and he was only drafted last season. There's plenty of improvement that needs to happen before we can call Brewer the next Frank Schwindel (just kidding, maybe), but that's what cheering for prospects is all about.

Let's keep an eye on Nicky Pratto and M.J, of course, and let's hope Seuly gets healthy and gets back to crushing the ball next year. But, let's also keep this Hicklen guy on our radar; he's about to conclude the kind of season that's only typical for a future MLB star.

Doug LaCerte plugs his sports blog articles and gives his opinions on Kanye albums on Twitter @DLaC67. He also still has a Facebook page, I guess.

How is Baltimore Still As Bad As KC?

Our Kansas City Royals now hold a narrow lead in the MLB's grand race to see who will earn next year's top overall draft pick. The Baltimore Orioles, somehow, are still neck and neck with the Royals in this season's marathon of sadness. KC still has the league's worst offense and pitching staff statistically, so our Boys in Blue should inevitably win this race by the time they wrap up the 67 games left of a season that's so disappointing it's almost historically unprecedented. After 2014 and '15 brought Royals fans to such unbelievable heights, fan morale now reaches a staggering and unexpected low-point. Morbid examinations of how the franchise arrived at this lowly state came in abundance recently, so I'd like to instead focus on KC's only important race for the rest of this season.

The Chicago White Sox currently sit six games away from "first place", and every other club is at least 11.5 games out of the race for last, making them too "good" to realistically vie for the #1 pick. It's more baffling to see Baltimore with the MLB"s 3rd-worst team ERA and team OPS than it is to see the Royals struggle this much. The Orioles have a guy currently hitting .315 with 24 dingers, and they're somehow just as bad as our Royals at the All Star break. Their problem with the offense is, well, everyone else in the lineup. Mark Trumbo is the team's second-best bat, judging by his .761 OPS. There are currently 11 Orioles with over 100 at-bats and an OPS below .700. Five of those players have an OPS below .600. Only four teams have fewer walks than Baltimore (while KC has the fewest), and only one team has less total runs scored. That team, of course, is your Kansas City Royals.

O's fans also place a lot of the blame on their starting rotation, and there's good reason for that. Alex Cobb, David Hess and Chris Tillman have combined for 33 starts for Baltimore this year. None of them have an ERA below 6. Opposing batters are hitting .313 off Cobb and .365 off Tillman. Oh, and Cobb is the team's highest-paid pitcher. If that sounds familiar, let's remember that KC's highest paid pitcher has been so awful that local media suggests the Royals should shut down Ian Kennedy for the year (and I agree.) To be this bad at the All Star break, teams apparently need to have a lot in common. At least KC spent $10.5 million less to get here.

Doug LaCerte tweets about Royals stuff and occasionally about Kanye West @DLaC67. He is usually too cool to pay attention to his Facebook.

KC Starts Season With Bad Weather, Worse Play

Only two teams in the MLB have a worse record than our 3-10 Kansas City Royals. That's quite the change from entering last season with that "one last ride" mentality - the heartfelt notion that the core could claw its way back to postseason play and make something memorable happen one more time. Fans knew the 2018 season would be different, and somewhat dismal in comparison. The start we're seeing has been disheartening, if not completely shocking.

The Royals began their season with a streak of awful weather and similarly awful on-the-field performance. A planned exhibition game on March 26 with our Triple-A affiliate Omaha Stormchasers never happened thanks to nasty weather. On the 29th, the Chicago White Sox tied an MLB record with six Opening Day home runs against KC at the Kauffman Stadium home opener. Our Royals then lost Game 2 of the season 4-3, despite entering the 8th inning with a two-run lead. Then, the final game of that series with Chicago was postponed due to cold weather. After heading to Michigan and losing the first two games with Detroit, the last game of that series was also postponed. So, because of cold weather and superfluous off-days, the Royals began their season playing two games in seven days, and only four games in 11 days. That is not baseball. That is basically the schedule of an NCAA basketball team during March Madness.

The Royals were surely thankful to play nine games straight, before yesterday's frigid weather in KC and today's damaged dome in Toronto led to two more postponed games. Did the Royals' get into a rhythm and begin playing good ball once they got to play a more baseball-like schedule? Nope! Their 1-3 record has now plummeted to 3-10, and they've lost five straight. Thanks to all the losing and missed games, KC fans will go more than a full week without seeing a win. It's still very early, and the reasons/excuses for KC's struggles are numerous, but hope for this team already seems hard to find.

The starting rotation stands out so far as the most surprising and uplifting element of the club. KC's combined ERA for starters ranks 6th in baseball, behind the St. Louis Cardinals and four 2017 playoff teams. Finding many other statistical bright spots isn't easy. Moose has been solid enough to perhaps gift KC with a worthwhile prospect via trade before the All Star Break. Uhh, what else? Alcides Escobar and Jorge Soler are tied for second on the team with five walks each. That's something, right?

The obvious silver lining here is that each loss makes the next Royals draft pick higher, so for fans of tanking, this bad start is actually good...if we can forget about the millions of dollars KC spent to not tank this season. If nothing else, take pleasure in the novelty of the differing fan philosophies in Kansas City right now. It sure does alter the fan-base when some fans now have opposed goals for their club. I already miss the times when consistently winning was realistic enough to keep all Royals fans hoping for the same outcome. It seems the new, darker era of baseball in KC will resist such simplicity.

Doug LaCerte writes about the Royals and the Chiefs while neglecting his Facebook page and Twitter feed @DLaC67 in similar fashion.

Can KC Keep Up Offensively In 2018?

Team OPS is, for me, the most telling statistic of the 2017 season. Judging by the numbers, it is apparently crucial to have a team OPS in the top ten if you want to dream of reaching the postseason. Seemingly every legit team in 2017 had a huge team OPS, which shows us how the league average jumped .011 points last year to .750 - the highest mark since 2009.

The #1-ranked Houston Astros are currently the champs. The #2 Cleveland Indians won 102 games in record-breaking fashion. Aaron Judge anchors the lineup of the #3 New York Yankees - a team that has the next-best odds in the AL of winning the World Series this year, behind only Houston. The trend goes on and on. The nine highest team OPS totals from last year belonged to postseason teams. The only team who made the playoffs without a top-ten OPS was the Boston Red Sox, and they only won a single postseason game.

You can look back through the years and see this trend continue even further. 6 of the 10 highest team OPS totals from 2016 belonged to playoff squads. The 7th-highest team OPS belonged to Cleveland, who lost in the Fall Classic to the 3rd-ranked Chicago Cubs. Even your 2015 World Series champion Kansas City Royals barely avoided being an outlier by ranking 10th in this stat during that sweet, sweet season. KC had to fight through the two best lineups in the world that year just to pass the first two playoff rounds; Toronto and Houston ranked first and second respectively in 2015 team OPS.

This means nothing good for your 2018 Royals, unless you ascribe to the philosophy that losing is winning this year because it means acquiring higher draft picks. Alcides Escobar and Alex Gordon both had an OPS below .630 last season, and they'll presumably be permanent fixtures in the lineup again this season. That's assuming Gordo doesn't play so poorly that he's eventually benched, but seeing as he truly looks as hopeless as ever right now, that eventual benching is not out of the question.

After struggling in '16, Gordo hit well in the following spring training, finishing with an .884 OPS.

After struggling more in '17, Gordo looked lost in the following spring training, finishing with a .398 OPS.

That was in Surprise, Arizona, where hitters notoriously have the advantage. I guess a ground ball to the second baseman is an out in any ballpark, but you get my point. As for Alcides, well, that's just Alcides.

Don't let this bum you out, though. Hope for improvement from Jorge Soler and the steady emergence of Whit Merrifield should be enough to titillate true baseball fans this season. Also, once Jorge Bonifacio returns from suspension, a hot hand could force a shake-up in the outfield, especially if KC is still flirting with contention. That is not likely, judging by what the vast majority of experts will currently tell you, but it also isn't nearly as unfathomable as the Debbie Downers of the sports world want us to think it is. Your 2014 Royals reached Game 7 of the World Series with the 17th-best team OPS in baseball, and they lost to a team that ranked 14th.

Oh, and whenever you're feeling down about this team, think about Frank Schwindel. Can he start working on his defensive skills in left field, please?

Doug LaCerte has a Facebook page and will probably continue to rave about Schwindel @DLaC67.

Spring Training Battles For Starting Time Start in Surprise

We're already seven games into the Kansas City Royals' 2018 spring training schedule. That means we can already over-analyze some stats! The departure of KC's championship core means several starting jobs are up for grabs this season. Many intriguing competitions for these jobs are already in full swing.

The Royals need some young sluggers like Jorge Soler to exceed expectations if they want any hope to sniff the postseason in the next three years. A .211/.318/.737 slash line, a 1.055 OPS, 7 RBI and 7 K's through 19 at-bats is a proper exhibition of the best and worst of Soler. He desperately needs to reduce his strikeout rate, but KC desperately needs some power in their sub-par lineup. Much has been made about Soler's offseason improvements, but the jury's still out on if his balanced new batting stance will improve his ability to hit for contact. He still looks studly when he barrels the ball and clueless when he gets K'ed.

The early competition for middle infield is off to a strong start, as well. Adalberto Mondesi is hitting consistently in his admittedly tiny sample of 13 at-bats, but Whit Merrifield looks determined to take firm hold of the starting gig at second base. Whit's 1.588 OPS through 17 at-bats leads the team at this point. Merrifield's positional flexibility complicates the matter of who will start the season at second base, but his skills at other positions could help both him and Mondesi get consistent at-bats in 2018.

Another key area of change for KC this year is the bullpen. Several relievers vying for big-league jobs started spring training with impressive performances. Kevin McCarthy, Brian Flynn, Burch Smith and non-roster invitee Kevin Lenik all have unblemished ERA's after pitching at least four innings. It's still very, very early, but pitching well in early March is tough, so this still bodes well for KC.

Doug LaCerte writes about local sports, drinks wine and occasionally does Twitter stuff @DLaC67.

KC Must See Minnesota Stumble

Has this first week of Kansas City Chiefs football made you forget about any hopes for postseason baseball in KC? You may be checking out a bit too early. Your Kansas City Royals still have a chance, but they have to play almost flawless baseball AND get help from two teams currently standing between them and a postseason berth. The Minnesota Twins lead the race now by two full games over the Angels and three games ahead of KC. Our odds for seeing October baseball at the K, according to FanGraphs, currently sits at 7.3%.

Minnesota has by far the best chance of breaking our hearts this September. Aside from currently leading the race, they also have a relatively easy end to their regular season schedule. 11 of their final 17 games come against teams with losing records. This includes today's final game with the San Diego Padres, a four-game series with the 68-77 Toronto Blue Jays and seven more against the 60-84 Detroit Tigers.

It's not all bad news for the Royals, however. KC will play three different three-game series against sub-.500 teams as well, and they expect Danny Duffy to return this weekend. The Royals' team batting average in September is also tied for the MLB's best. A few good days can still change everything, but KC needs the Twins to struggle to have any hopes of playing postseason baseball in 2017.

KC Built Better in 2017

The sweet sounds of live baseball will again grace our eardrums one week from today, when the Kansas City Royals hit the airwaves for the first time in this much-anticipated 2017 season. Yeah, it's just Spring Training, and yeah, the Royals have a mountain to climb to return to the postseason. The relative unimportance of games in late February shouldn’t be our focus right now, though. Fans in KC still have good reason to be excited about baseball this year, and even this month.

I initially thought KC needed to improve offensively while also keeping the pitching staff and defense “as good” in order to have any playoff aspirations this year. A closer look at last year’s numbers, especially pertaining to clubs who reached the postseason, indicated something very different. You should nonetheless be excited by the realistic notion that your Royals could improve their pitching staff and lineup in 2017.

Kendrys Morales is KC's only major loss to the batting order, and Royals management made moves to shore up an offense that was one of the league's worst last season. Jorge Soler's potential should excite you, and Brandon Moss posted an OPS above .825 against right-handed pitching in four of the last five seasons. Mike Moustakas is back from a season-ending injury, Alex Gordon is bound to be better, legit competition for second base should improve productivity overall, and a lot of KC’s core is still trending upward. It’s easy to have hope for the offense, especially when the Royals don’t need a great offense to have hope for a playoff run.

This year’s lineup doesn’t need to be incredible, but it must avoid being awful. The 2015 World Series Champion Royals finished the regular season with a .734 team OPS that ranked 10th in baseball. Last year, KC's team OPS dropped to .712. Only four clubs in the MLB recorded a team OPS lower than that last season, and none of those four teams won more than 71 games. It’s worth noting that Baseball Prospectus currently projects this year’s Royals to win 71 games.

The offense shouldn’t concern you, or at least it shouldn’t concern you as much as starting pitching. If any statistic seemed to confirm a team’s legitimacy last season, it was a club’s combined ERA for their starters. The combined ERA for Royals starters last year was 4.67, which ranked 23rd in baseball. Repeating this lack of success would make KC's chances at reaching the playoffs this year frighteningly low. The clubs who ranked 1^st through 8^th in combined starters' ERA's all reached the postseason in 2016. The two teams who made the postseason with an unimpressive starters' ERA - Baltimore and Texas - both ranked in the top ten league-wide in home runs, teaming slugging percentage and OPS. For the record, KC ranked 27th in homers, 24th in slugging percentage and 26th in OPS.

While K-Mo was KC’s only major loss in the lineup, the Royals had many more holes in their pitching staff. Wade Davis, Luke Hochevar, and Dillon Gee are all gone after combining for 205 and 2/3rds innings. Edinson Volquez and the late, great Yordano Ventura finished 2nd and 3rd in total innings pitched for KC last year, combining for 375 total innings. This list of pitchers who won’t throw a single pitch for the Royals in 2017 looks daunting, but the success with which KC rebounds from these losses could surprise a bunch of baseball people this season. With the help of a more generous, thoughtful owner in David Glass, Royals GM Dayton Moore just recently built something that resembles a legit pitching staff.

Jason Hammel threw for at least 166 innings and recorded an ERA no higher than 3.83 in each of his last three seasons. The return of a healthy Jason Vargas, a crafty veteran lefty who can consistently eat up innings, will also be huge for this team. Nate Karns' health is another major factor. In his one full year as a big-league starter, Karns pitched 147 innings and compiled a 3.67 ERA. That's about 40 less innings than KC got out of Ace or Steady Edi last year, but Karns' ERA in that season was over 0.7 runs lower than that of Ventura's 2016 campaign.

And hey, do you guys remember Kyle Zimmer? You know, that guy with a mid-90’s fastball and a curveball that already embarrasses big-league hitters? If all of Zim’s injury history can be explained by thoracic outlet syndrome, which is a problem he just surgically solved, then the Royals will add the fifth overall draft pick from 2012 to a pitching staff already expected to improve. Add Travis Wood to the back of the rotation or the heart of the bullpen, throw in veterans Seth Maness and Peter Moylan on minor-league deals, and this pitching staff suddenly looks more-than-competent.

The losses from last year’s staff are significant to say the least, but Royals management successfully rebounded from those losses. On paper, our Royals are already better than they were in 2016. I’m looking forward to providing the KC faithful with more evidence of that, and much more Royals-related content, as the story of this season unfolds. Get ready, KC; we’re only seven days away from live Royals baseball.

Doug LaCerte will spend much of the next seven days studying new player nicknames on Twitter @DLaC67 while completely neglecting his Facebook page.

10 Reasons for Optimism in 2017

Only a sick bastard would start his Kansas City Royals blog today, but here I am. What am I supposed to do, just suddenly stop thinking about baseball after enjoying four hours' worth of baseball and baseball-related entertainment nearly every day for six months? After the ridiculous stretch this Royals organization just experienced - or rather, is still experiencing - any healthy transition away from constantly thinking about KC baseball is impossible.

It's gonna be a rough offseason, but I'm focusing on the positive in an attempt to avoid my typical end-of-the-season sadness-slump. Without further unnecessary info about my psychological problems, here are 10 good reasons to be optimistic about the Royals in 2017:

1. Ian Kennedy gave up more homers than any other Royal this season, but he also pitched the most innings and recorded the second-most strikeouts. If Kennedy keeps pitching like the guy who recorded a 3.38 ERA since the All Star break, Royals fans will quickly grow to adore him.

2. Paulo Orlando stepped up and proved to be a legit big-leaguer, and he's earned the lion's share of the starts next year as he presumably continues to split time with Jarrod Dyson. Kendrys Morales, Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain are the only Royals with a better 2016 OPS than Orlando. That's two pillars of a championship-winning roster and a full-time veteran DH.

3. Despite Cheslor Cuthbert playing remarkably well as a replacement, KC suffered from the lack of left-handed power in the lineup after Mike Moustakas went down in May with a knee injury. Before that fateful moment, Moose looked like he was on pace to repeat his solid performance from 2015, when he finished with a .284/.348/.470 batting line, 22 homers and 82 runs batted in. Adding that production to next year's lineup will clearly change things for the better.

4. Jason Vargas was not expected to take the mound again in 2016, so any contribution from him before the 2016 season ended was an unexpected luxury. That's not to mention that Vargas quickly went back to being his old self, and should slate right into the rotation next year.

5. The next step for Danny Duffy after this successful season is to become a bona fide ace. Many experts within the organization believe that if all goes well, we could witness the best starting season for a Royal since a guy named Zack Greinke played here.

6. A bunch of the young talent we saw, namely Cuthbert, Raul Mondesi, Whit Merrifield and Matt Strahm, look like they'll be legit contributors in 2017 and beyond. Well, maybe they'll be trade pieces instead, but that's a different story.

7. I know it's too early to project an entire starting lineup, but just imagine this defense taking the field- Salvador Perez, Hosmer, Mondesi, Alcides Escobar, Moustakas/Cuthbert, Orlando/Dyson, Cain and Platinum Glove Award winner Alex Gordon. Go ahead and find me a position where the Royals don't have a chance to win a Gold Glove next season.

8. The Royals ranked 12th at the All Star break with just 50 stolen bases, but they swiped 71 bags in the second half, which was 4th in baseball and bumped them up to the 6th-highest total for the season. It seems like the club returned to embracing that style of play, and that should continue into next year.

9. The old Detroit Tigers roster gets one year older next year, the Minnesota Twins don't look like they're ready to contend yet, the Chicago White Sox somewhat-predictably faded into obscurity and the Cleveland Indians can't stay healthy. It's not as if KC needs to win the AL East next season.

10. There just aren't too many question marks surrounding next year's roster, and most of the questions we do have are actually fun to ask. How will KC deal with Moose's return and Cuthbert's success? Which one of the aforementioned young infielders will earn the majority of starts at second base? Frankly, we won't be asking if the Royals can be good next year, but instead we'll want to know just how good KC can be.

The Royals face off against the Twins at Target Stadium at 3:10 PM on April 3rd, 2017. We're less than 182 days away, Royals fans. Thanks for reading.

Doug LaCerte also runs The Red and Gold Report and tries not to neglect his minuscule fanbase on Twitter @DLaC67.